diff --git a/slides/talks/2017-1-EDBT-Inference/index.html b/slides/talks/2017-1-EDBT-Inference/index.html index e7fdeb71..9e9e645c 100644 --- a/slides/talks/2017-1-EDBT-Inference/index.html +++ b/slides/talks/2017-1-EDBT-Inference/index.html @@ -71,11 +71,11 @@
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Disclaimer

Ying could not be here today. If you like her ideas, get in touch with her.

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(she's on the job market)

(If you don't, blame my presentation)

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(Also, Ying is on the job market)

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Graphical Models

Joint probability distributions are expensive to store
$$p(D, I, G, S, J)$$

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Bayes rule lets us break apart the distribution
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Bayes rule lets us break apart the distribution
$$= p(D, I, G, S) \cdot p(J | D, I, G, S)$$

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And conditional independence lets us further simplify
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And conditional independence lets us further simplify
$$= p(D, I, G, S) \cdot p(J | G, S)$$

This is basis for a type of graphical model called a "Bayes Net"

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Idea: Use OLA

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Idea: Online Aggregation

Online Aggregation (OLA)

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Cyclic Sampling

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Advantages
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Progressively better estimates over time.
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Converges in bounded time.
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Disadvantages
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Exponential time in the number of variables.
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Accuracy

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Cyclic Sampling

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Advantages
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Progressively better estimates over time.
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Converges in bounded time.
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Disadvantages
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Exponential time in the number of variables.
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@@ -293,18 +294,18 @@ - - - + + +
$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_2}$
130.348
240.288
340.350
110.126
   
   
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$D$$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_1}$
0110.126
1120.222
0220.238
1220.050
0320.322
1320.028
$I$$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_1}$
0110.18
    
    
    
    
    
@@ -317,7 +318,7 @@ 340.350 - + @@ -336,7 +337,7 @@
$D$$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_1}$
$I$$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_1}$
0120.140
1120.222
0220.238
340.350
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  • Idea 2: "Leak" samples through a normal join graph.
  • Compared to both Variable Elim. and Gibbs Sampling, Leaky Joins are often better and never drastically worse.
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    Questions?

    $D$$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_1}$
    $I$$G$#$\sum p_{\psi_1}$
    0120.140
    1120.222
    0220.238