While \Cref{thm:mult-p-hard-result} shows that computing $\rpoly(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ in general is hard it does not rule out the possibility that one can compute this value exactly for a {\em fixed} value of $\prob$. Indeed, it is easy to check that one can compute $\rpoly(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ exactly in linear time for $\prob\in\inset{0,1}$. In this section, we show that these two are the only possibilities:
Fix $\prob\in(0,1)$. Then assuming \Cref{conj:graph} is true, any algorithm that computes $\rpoly_{G}^3(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ from $G$ exactly has to run in time $\Omega\inparen{\abs{E(G)}^{1+\eps_0}}$, where $\eps_0$ is as defined in \Cref{conj:graph}.
%\begin{proof}[Proof of Corollary ~\ref{th:single-p-gen-k}]
%Consider $\poly^3_{G}$ and $\poly' = 1$ such that $\poly'' = \poly^3_{G} \cdot \poly'$. By \Cref{th:single-p}, query $\poly''$ with $\kElem = 4$ has $\Omega(\numvar^{\frac{4}{3}})$ complexity.
The above shows the hardness for a very specific query polynomial but it is easy to come up with an infinite family of hard query polynomials by `embedding' $\rpoly_{G}^3$ into an infinite family of trivial query polynomials.
Unlike \Cref{thm:mult-p-hard-result} the above result does not show that computing $\rpoly_{G}^3(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ for a fixed $\prob\in(0,1)$ is \sharpwonehard.
However, in \Cref{sec:algo} we show that if we are willing to compute an approximation that this problem (and indeed solving our problem for a much more general setting) is in linear time.
If we can compute $\rpoly_{G}^3(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ exactly in $T(\numedge)$ time, then we can exactly compute $\numocc{G}{\tri}$%count the number of triangles, 3-paths, and 3-matchings in $G$
Let $G$ be the input graph. It is easy to see that one can compute the expression tree for $\poly_{G}^3(\vct{X})$ in $O(m)$ time. Then by \Cref{th:single-p} we can compute $\numocc{G}{\tri}$ in further time $o\inparen{m^{1+\eps_0}}+O(m)$. Thus, the overall, reduction takes $o\inparen{m^{1+\eps_0}}+O(m)= o\inparen{m^{1+\eps_0}}$ time, which violates \Cref{conj:graph}.
Note that $\rpoly_{G}^3(\prob,\ldots, \prob)$ as a polynomial in $\prob$ has degree at most six. Next, we figure out the exact coefficients since this would be useful in our arguments:
Since $\prob$ is fixed, \Cref{lem:qE3-exp} gives us one linear equation in $\numocc{G}{\tri}$ and $\numocc{G}{\threedis}$ (we can handle the other counts due to \Cref{eq:1e}-\Cref{eq:3p-3tri}). However, we need to generate one more independent linear equation in these two variables. Towards this end we generate another graph related to $G$:
For $\ell > 1$, let graph $\graph{\ell}$ be a graph generated from an arbitrary graph $\graph{1}$, by replacing every edge $e$ of $\graph{1}$ with a $\ell$-path, such that all inner vertexes of an $\ell$-path replacement edge are disjoint from the inner vertexes of any other $\ell$-path replacement edge. % in the sense that they only intersect at the original intersection endpoints as seen in $\graph{1}$.
Fix $\prob\in(0,1)$. Given $\rpoly_{\graph{\ell}}^3(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ for $\ell\in[2]$, we can compute in $O(m)$ time a vector $\vct{b}\in\mathbb{R}^3$ such that
We can compute $\graph{2}$ from $\graph{1}$ in $O(m)$ time. Additionally, if in time $O(T(m))$, we have $\rpoly_{\graph{\ell}}^3(\prob,\dots,\prob)$ for $\ell\in[2]$, then the theorem follows by \Cref{lem:lin-sys}.